Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.260942 3.916970 4.651139 5.530707 6.552720 7.699603 9.080685
2025-05-04 2.485919 3.370017 4.464029 5.904583 7.737189 9.975100 12.897133
2025-05-11 1.870706 2.817227 4.093698 5.912535 8.403794 11.658076 16.184461
2025-05-18 1.397914 2.317048 3.656238 5.701712 8.687700 12.817159 18.871287
2025-05-25 1.052853 1.908949 3.248631 5.427815 8.794605 13.689164 21.198803
2025-06-01 0.852915 1.676156 3.048628 5.407082 9.232490 15.033818 24.279559
2025-06-08 0.709861 1.503945 2.907448 5.442540 9.737696 16.499712 27.641591
2025-06-15 0.589129 1.342879 2.752112 5.420873 10.130957 17.807692 30.849524
2025-06-22 0.462884 1.140054 2.482809 5.152896 10.065541 18.357111 32.880575
2025-06-29 0.388198 1.025399 2.357068 5.121561 10.395636 19.569517 36.063994
2025-07-06 0.326691 0.924439 2.239221 5.083966 10.701493 20.754258 39.276470
2025-07-13 0.304610 0.910992 2.300180 5.405436 11.704471 23.227255 44.861030
2025-07-20 0.273236 0.868740 2.295249 5.598654 12.496243 25.413634 50.155101
2025-07-27 0.250729 0.844467 2.327176 5.874633 13.480523 28.031600 56.410115
2025-08-03 0.213655 0.769878 2.227597 5.848444 13.849160 29.529217 60.736624
2025-08-10 0.173231 0.673016 2.054380 5.628509 13.786875 30.193953 63.561063
2025-08-17 0.137912 0.579925 1.870952 5.354114 13.571468 30.532237 65.778637
2025-08-24 0.118111 0.531528 1.796843 5.332418 13.904841 31.981200 70.216306
2025-08-31 0.103064 0.494871 1.748211 5.367037 14.366893 33.722572 75.333251
2025-09-07 0.088549 0.454983 1.681938 5.345495 14.694529 35.205421 80.023953
2025-09-14 0.070353 0.392804 1.533882 5.080752 14.413277 35.374153 82.059746
2025-09-21 0.060257 0.360732 1.473880 5.049786 14.695522 36.774032 86.709253
2025-09-28 0.051524 0.331015 1.414980 5.012648 14.957168 38.144803 91.377436